The New England Journal of Medicine, in association with Journal Watch, has
set up a very helpful (open access) H1N1 Influenza Center, with up-to-date
information for both health professionals and lay people at:
http://h1n1.nejm.org
set up a very helpful (open access) H1N1 Influenza Center, with up-to-date
information for both health professionals and lay people at:
http://h1n1.nejm.org
Note: This website is updated each Thursday and
contains no pictures to ensure quick access. With
so much information available, an attempt has
been made to consider only key issues and provide
supporting analysis.
contains no pictures to ensure quick access. With
so much information available, an attempt has
been made to consider only key issues and provide
supporting analysis.
Honest communication of facts is important, as John Barry outlines, in an
article in Nature, "Pandemics: avoiding the mistakes of 1918" at:
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v459/n7245/full/459324a.html
article in Nature, "Pandemics: avoiding the mistakes of 1918" at:
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v459/n7245/full/459324a.html
Avian Flu Action is an educational website that helps you
to become informed about Swine Flu--also known as Mexican
Flu or the Influenza A (H1N1) Virus--and set up your own
local network to protect yourself and your neighbours, friends
and work colleagues.
===============================================
This website contains some underlined links in blue
to helpful, informed websites.
An especially useful paper, published by inSTEDD
(Innovative Support to Emergencies Diseases and Disasters).
is "Pandemic Influenza: Preparation and Response: A
Citizen's Guide" updated in May 2009 and available at:
http://instedd.org/flumanual
Just move the mouse to any blue or purple website
and then click the left-hand side of the mouse.
===============================================
Within this website, clicking on the pages listed
at the top on the left provides details on:
Background News
Media sources available on the web or in libraries
Books, conferences and courses
Government Publications
Local campaigns and
Breaking news
=============================================
to become informed about Swine Flu--also known as Mexican
Flu or the Influenza A (H1N1) Virus--and set up your own
local network to protect yourself and your neighbours, friends
and work colleagues.
===============================================
This website contains some underlined links in blue
to helpful, informed websites.
An especially useful paper, published by inSTEDD
(Innovative Support to Emergencies Diseases and Disasters).
is "Pandemic Influenza: Preparation and Response: A
Citizen's Guide" updated in May 2009 and available at:
http://instedd.org/flumanual
Just move the mouse to any blue or purple website
and then click the left-hand side of the mouse.
===============================================
Within this website, clicking on the pages listed
at the top on the left provides details on:
Background News
Media sources available on the web or in libraries
Books, conferences and courses
Government Publications
Local campaigns and
Breaking news
=============================================
We welcome your
comments on this
website.
E-mail to: admin@
avianfluaction.org
Thank you for
visiting the website:
Robert Kahn, PhD
Co-ordinator
Avian Flu Action
Warrington
United Kingdom
comments on this
website.
E-mail to: admin@
avianfluaction.org
Thank you for
visiting the website:
Robert Kahn, PhD
Co-ordinator
Avian Flu Action
Warrington
United Kingdom
Go to next page.
Website last updated:
4 July 2009
4 July 2009
Avian Flu Action
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On June 11th, Dr Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health
Organization, declared that the Influenza A (H1N1) virus was now so widespread
that it was necessary to declare a Phase 6 Pandemic Alert, the highest level, even
though the virus is usually mild at present. For her brief speech, see the WHO
media centre website at:
www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_pandemic_phase6_20090611
/en/index.html
Organization, declared that the Influenza A (H1N1) virus was now so widespread
that it was necessary to declare a Phase 6 Pandemic Alert, the highest level, even
though the virus is usually mild at present. For her brief speech, see the WHO
media centre website at:
www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_pandemic_phase6_20090611
/en/index.html
June 29: With more than 70,000 confirmed cases of Influenza A (H1N1) in more
than 100 countries and 311 deaths, it is clear that the virus is spreading in a
moderate form steadily throughout many communities. However as the
responsible ministers from many countries have pointed out, the actual
declaration of Phase 6 is a confirmation of reality, rather than a reason to panic.
That reality, unfortunately for many, as Dr Chan has noted, is that "around 85%
of the burden of chronic disease is concentrated in low- and middle-income
countries;" and this is likely to continue with Influenza A (H1N1).
than 100 countries and 311 deaths, it is clear that the virus is spreading in a
moderate form steadily throughout many communities. However as the
responsible ministers from many countries have pointed out, the actual
declaration of Phase 6 is a confirmation of reality, rather than a reason to panic.
That reality, unfortunately for many, as Dr Chan has noted, is that "around 85%
of the burden of chronic disease is concentrated in low- and middle-income
countries;" and this is likely to continue with Influenza A (H1N1).
The Lancet has set up a similar (open access) website with a free content
library of significant articles at:www.TheLancet.com/H1N1-flu
library of significant articles at:www.TheLancet.com/H1N1-flu
From The Guardian, Monday, 1 June 2009, p. 7 by David Batty
“Expert warns of autumn swine flu pandemic”
The UK is likely to be struck by a swine flu pandemic in the early autumn
before a vaccine is available, an influenza expert said yesterday.
A pandemic should be expected in September or October when schools and
universities reopen and people return from their summer holidays, said John
Oxford, professor of virology at St Bartholomew’s and the Royal London
hospital.
The warning came as the Health Protection Agency (HPA) confirmed
another 14 cases of swine flu in England, bringing the UK total to 244.
The professor said the number of cases in Britain unrelated to travel
suggested the H1N1 virus was “silently spreading around”. Oxford said:
“When children go back to school in September the virus has an opportunity,
and normally it takes it. That’s the scenario we should prepare for and that’s
what we are preparing for.”
His comments came as the HPA wrote to the parents of pupils at Eton
College stating there are now four confirmed cases and 32 suspected cases of
swine flu at the school. A 13-year-old pupil tested positive for the illness last
week, prompting the Berkshire school to close for a week.
The professor urged people to observe good hygiene. “I view it like a
medieval castle, with several layers of defence,” he said. “You’ve got the
outer layer that is hygiene and social distancing, then the virus breaks
through that and then we have the antivirals like Tamiflu and then the final
layer is the vaccine.”
“You chuck all of this at the virus. You can’t stop it, but you can slow it
down,” he said. “The best advice is to carry on as normal but to be sensible
about it. This includes a bit of social distancing and shielding people from
coughs.”
==========================================================
“Expert warns of autumn swine flu pandemic”
The UK is likely to be struck by a swine flu pandemic in the early autumn
before a vaccine is available, an influenza expert said yesterday.
A pandemic should be expected in September or October when schools and
universities reopen and people return from their summer holidays, said John
Oxford, professor of virology at St Bartholomew’s and the Royal London
hospital.
The warning came as the Health Protection Agency (HPA) confirmed
another 14 cases of swine flu in England, bringing the UK total to 244.
The professor said the number of cases in Britain unrelated to travel
suggested the H1N1 virus was “silently spreading around”. Oxford said:
“When children go back to school in September the virus has an opportunity,
and normally it takes it. That’s the scenario we should prepare for and that’s
what we are preparing for.”
His comments came as the HPA wrote to the parents of pupils at Eton
College stating there are now four confirmed cases and 32 suspected cases of
swine flu at the school. A 13-year-old pupil tested positive for the illness last
week, prompting the Berkshire school to close for a week.
The professor urged people to observe good hygiene. “I view it like a
medieval castle, with several layers of defence,” he said. “You’ve got the
outer layer that is hygiene and social distancing, then the virus breaks
through that and then we have the antivirals like Tamiflu and then the final
layer is the vaccine.”
“You chuck all of this at the virus. You can’t stop it, but you can slow it
down,” he said. “The best advice is to carry on as normal but to be sensible
about it. This includes a bit of social distancing and shielding people from
coughs.”
==========================================================
For a comprehensive update on the position in developing countries, see the
(open access) website of SciDev/Science and Development Network at:
www.scidev.net/en/health/swine-flu
(open access) website of SciDev/Science and Development Network at:
www.scidev.net/en/health/swine-flu
The Current Situation
Predictions for the Autumn
4 July 2009: During the last week, many countries have recognised that it will not
be possible to contain the disease, but it can usually be treated successfully. In the
United States computer model projections have indicated that there are already
approximately one million cases of Influenza A (H1N1), the vast majority not
confirmed in laboratories. In the United Kingdom, it is anticipated that there will
will be 100,000 cases a day during the autumn, as schools and universities reopen,
gathering young people together who will be hard hit by the disease.
be possible to contain the disease, but it can usually be treated successfully. In the
United States computer model projections have indicated that there are already
approximately one million cases of Influenza A (H1N1), the vast majority not
confirmed in laboratories. In the United Kingdom, it is anticipated that there will
will be 100,000 cases a day during the autumn, as schools and universities reopen,
gathering young people together who will be hard hit by the disease.
As long as the present novel H1N1 virus does not change significantly, the
current pandemic will lead to many deaths, but not on the vast scale of 1918 to
1920 when some 50 to 100 million people died. The big danger is that the easy
to transmit novel H1N1 virus will mix with the H5N1 virus which is much more
lethal. This might happen somewhere such as Indonesia, as its ministers are
well aware. The Reuters news service sets out the position: "Will two flus mix
in Indonesia? Experts worry" at:
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleID=USTRESS4YE20090629
current pandemic will lead to many deaths, but not on the vast scale of 1918 to
1920 when some 50 to 100 million people died. The big danger is that the easy
to transmit novel H1N1 virus will mix with the H5N1 virus which is much more
lethal. This might happen somewhere such as Indonesia, as its ministers are
well aware. The Reuters news service sets out the position: "Will two flus mix
in Indonesia? Experts worry" at:
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleID=USTRESS4YE20090629
Three Important Resources
| Will the novel H1N1 virus and the H5N1 virus join to become a new lethal virus? |
The links between the current swine flu (H1N1) outbreak and earlier avian flu
research have been set out in a recent article by Sorrell, Wan, Araya, Song
and Perez in PNAS, summarised by Science Daily at:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090429132238.htm
research have been set out in a recent article by Sorrell, Wan, Araya, Song
and Perez in PNAS, summarised by Science Daily at:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090429132238.htm
How serious is the H1N1 pandemic at present?
The current pandemic is slightly more serious than the annual flu, but
threatens different kinds of people. Whereas the current pandemic is
a threat to children and young adults, the annual flu is much more of
a threat to people over 60. This may be because older people have
some immunity to the novel H1N1 virus, or because older people
seldom come in contact with those who currently have the virus. The
position is not yet clear.
However, even though the novel H1N1 virus has only a moderate
impact, it is not a good idea to try and catch it now, during its first
wave, by holding a "swine flu party," as the Chairman of the British
Medical Association's public health committee, pointed out in a recent
report on BBC News, "Swine flu parties 'a bad idea'" at:
http://news.bbc.co/uk1/hi/health/8125191.stm
threatens different kinds of people. Whereas the current pandemic is
a threat to children and young adults, the annual flu is much more of
a threat to people over 60. This may be because older people have
some immunity to the novel H1N1 virus, or because older people
seldom come in contact with those who currently have the virus. The
position is not yet clear.
However, even though the novel H1N1 virus has only a moderate
impact, it is not a good idea to try and catch it now, during its first
wave, by holding a "swine flu party," as the Chairman of the British
Medical Association's public health committee, pointed out in a recent
report on BBC News, "Swine flu parties 'a bad idea'" at:
http://news.bbc.co/uk1/hi/health/8125191.stm