Improving Business Continuity Planning for Pandemic Flu
Some Dangers
A major reason for concern is that pandemic influenza might occur in many different
places with different viruses, as outlined in the June 2006 issue of the Public Library
of Science, "Pandemic Influenza: Risk of Multiple Introductions and the Need to
Prepare for Them," available with numerous other articles by searching for "bird flu"
in the Public Library of Science
places with different viruses, as outlined in the June 2006 issue of the Public Library
of Science, "Pandemic Influenza: Risk of Multiple Introductions and the Need to
Prepare for Them," available with numerous other articles by searching for "bird flu"
in the Public Library of Science
For those interested in understanding the basic science, the peer- reviewed,
open-access, free journals of the Public Library of Science (PLoS) are quite
worthwhile. See initially PLoS Biology Volume 4(2) February 2006: "Pandemic
Influenza: The Inside Story" by Henry Nicholls (then search in the box in the top
right-hand corner for "pandemic influenza"). Of equal importance is the article on
"The Scientific Response to a Pandemic" in PLoS Pathogens, Vol 2 Issue 2, February
2006
open-access, free journals of the Public Library of Science (PLoS) are quite
worthwhile. See initially PLoS Biology Volume 4(2) February 2006: "Pandemic
Influenza: The Inside Story" by Henry Nicholls (then search in the box in the top
right-hand corner for "pandemic influenza"). Of equal importance is the article on
"The Scientific Response to a Pandemic" in PLoS Pathogens, Vol 2 Issue 2, February
2006
Understanding the Role of Journalists and the Media
For an excellent summary of the significance of an influenza pandemic, see the WHO
Handbook for Journalists: Influenza Pandemic
For an excellent summary of the significance of an influenza pandemic, see the WHO
Handbook for Journalists: Influenza Pandemic
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Understanding the Role of Science
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Reflections
Because of the Canadian experience with SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome), the Canadians have done a great deal of pandemic flu planning. Of
particular interest for businesses anywhere is the 20-page January 2007 Ontario's
Pandemic Planning Tool Kit.
Syndrome), the Canadians have done a great deal of pandemic flu planning. Of
particular interest for businesses anywhere is the 20-page January 2007 Ontario's
Pandemic Planning Tool Kit.
In February 2007, the US Department of Labor, Occupational Safety & Health
Administration published a comprehensive 21-page guidance on Preparing Workplaces
for an Influenza Pandemic
Administration published a comprehensive 21-page guidance on Preparing Workplaces
for an Influenza Pandemic
For a concise 2-page summary of how to sustain business continuity during an influenza
pandemic, see the article from Leslie Whittet that quotes Dwight D Eisenhower: "Plans
are nothing; planning is everything," available from Continuity Central.
pandemic, see the article from Leslie Whittet that quotes Dwight D Eisenhower: "Plans
are nothing; planning is everything," available from Continuity Central.
The extent of the international economic depression that would be caused by
pandemic flu has been set out in "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic
Influenza" by the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia in their recent publication.
pandemic flu has been set out in "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic
Influenza" by the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia in their recent publication.
The Lowy Institute Report predicts that a mild pandemic would probably kill 1.4
million people world-wide with an economic losss of US$330 billion, while a severe
pandemic could kill 142 million, with a loss of US$4.4 trillion. Some 95% of deaths
would probably be in developing countries.
million people world-wide with an economic losss of US$330 billion, while a severe
pandemic could kill 142 million, with a loss of US$4.4 trillion. Some 95% of deaths
would probably be in developing countries.
Major grants have been made to accelerate innovative vaccine
technologies by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
technologies by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
and to enable rapid responses to emerging
diseases by www.google.org
An editorial in The Lancet of 29 April 2009 concludes:
"Vigilance, and not alarm, is needed, with readiness to
self-isolate oneself at home if an influenza-like illness
develops. Such home isolation, combined with other measures
of social distancing, are most likely to stop the spread of
swine influenza. these actions could buy the necessary time to
boost stockpiles of antivrals and develop a vaccine against
this virus, which will inevitably take months rather than
weeks to prepare and distribute. So far, the rapid responses
by governments and international agencies have triggered
effective mechanism to protect the public. But the vital role
and responsibility of the individual should not be ignored."
See Swine influenza: how much of a global threat?"
"Vigilance, and not alarm, is needed, with readiness to
self-isolate oneself at home if an influenza-like illness
develops. Such home isolation, combined with other measures
of social distancing, are most likely to stop the spread of
swine influenza. these actions could buy the necessary time to
boost stockpiles of antivrals and develop a vaccine against
this virus, which will inevitably take months rather than
weeks to prepare and distribute. So far, the rapid responses
by governments and international agencies have triggered
effective mechanism to protect the public. But the vital role
and responsibility of the individual should not be ignored."
See Swine influenza: how much of a global threat?"
Some Good Advice
Vaccine Development
The virulence of the present recombined pig/bird/human H1N1 virus is not known.
This may be the first mild wave which will be followed in the autumn by much more
virulent waves, as in 1918-1920. Alternatively, this wave might continue to be mild
and then die out, with no further waves. In the 50 known cases of swine influenza in
humans between 1958 and 2005, 7 people died. This case fatality rate of 14% is
documented in the April 15th 2007 issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases, "Cases of
Swine Influenza in Humans: A Review of the Literature" at:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/512813
This may be the first mild wave which will be followed in the autumn by much more
virulent waves, as in 1918-1920. Alternatively, this wave might continue to be mild
and then die out, with no further waves. In the 50 known cases of swine influenza in
humans between 1958 and 2005, 7 people died. This case fatality rate of 14% is
documented in the April 15th 2007 issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases, "Cases of
Swine Influenza in Humans: A Review of the Literature" at:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/512813
On the role of the media, see Debra E. Blakely, Mass Mediated Disease: A Case
Study Analysis of Three Flu Pandemics and Public Health Policy (Lexington Books,
Plymouth, UK, 2007)
Study Analysis of Three Flu Pandemics and Public Health Policy (Lexington Books,
Plymouth, UK, 2007)
However, this high case fatality rate is linked to heavy exposures, largely to swine
farmers. Whether future waves will be mild or virulent will be indicated by what
happens in the Southern Hemisphere now (as winter begins), and what happens in the
Northern Hemisphere in the autumn. Also, because all cases are not reported, initial
case fatality rates may be misleading.
farmers. Whether future waves will be mild or virulent will be indicated by what
happens in the Southern Hemisphere now (as winter begins), and what happens in the
Northern Hemisphere in the autumn. Also, because all cases are not reported, initial
case fatality rates may be misleading.